000			00490nam a2200157Ia 4500
999			_c18214 _d18214
008			161214s9999 xx 000 0 und d
020			_a9780713999952 _chbk
082			_a003.54 _bTAL
100			_aTaleb, Nassim Nicholas
245		0	_aBlack swan : the impact of the highly improbable
260			_aLondon: _bPenguin Books, _c2007
300			_axxviii, 366 p.; _bill.: _c24 cm.
365			_aINR _b495.00
520			_aElegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/​11. And why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ‘impossible’. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and shows us how to face the world.
650			_aForecasting
650			_aUncertainty (Information theory) - Social aspects
650			_aProbability
942			_2ddc _cBK