000			nam a22 4500
999			_c32714 _d32714
008			240213b xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a9780691160573
082			_a577.0112 _bDIE
100			_aDietze, Michael Christopher
245			_aEcological forecasting
260			_bPrinceton University Press, _c2017 _aPrinceton :
300			_ax, 270 p., _bill., _c26 cm.
365			_b72.00 _c$ _d86.50
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520			_aEcologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new dataDescribes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on:Quantifying and partitioning uncertaintiesDealing with the complexities of real-world dataFeedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision supportNumerous hands-on activities in R available online.
650			_aEcological forecasting
650			_aMonte Carlo Methods
650			_aEpidemiology
650			_aFisheries
650			_aEndangered species
650			_aBiodiversity
650			_aCarbon cycle
650			_aEcosystem health forecasting
650			_aNature ecology
650			_aEnvironmental science
942			_2ddc _cBK