000			a
999			_c33789 _d33789
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020			_a9780226822587
082			_a519.5 _bDOW
100			_aDowney, Allen B.
245			_aProbably overthinking it : how to use data to answer questions, avoid statistical traps, and make better decisions
260			_bThe University of Chicago Press, _c2023 _aChicago :
300			_a252 p. ; _bill., _c24 cm
365			_b24.00 _c$ _d90.60
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520			_aTeacher, data scientist, and blogger Allen B. Downey knows well that the human mind has both an innate ability to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. Statistically speaking, you will be less popular than your friends, arrive at a train station during a gap in service, and fail to find a running mate in a race. But more than surprising us, errors in statistical thinking, Downey shows, can have a huge impact. Statistical confusion has led to incorrect patient prognoses, caused mistakes in predicting disasters like earthquakes, hurt vaccination programs, hindered social justice efforts, and led to dubious policy decisions. Written for those who may have once taken a statistics course, but now forget almost everything they've learned, the book includes a diversity of examples that use real data and have real world impacts. Building understanding incrementally, Downey engagingly and accessibly helps readers understand what we might learn when we get the mathematics right, and the consequences when we get it all wrong.
650			_aPopular science
650			_aBerkson's paradox
650			_aCohort effect
650			_aGaussian model
650			_aLognormal model
650			_aOverton window
650			_aPercentile rank
650			_aSolar flares
942			_2ddc _cBK