000			a
999			_c34594 _d34594
008			250817b xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020			_a9780241658628 _c(hbk)
082			_a519.20 _bSPI
100			_aSpiegelhalter, David
245			_aThe art of uncertainty : how to navigate chance, ignorance, risk and luck
260			_bPelican, _c2024 _aLondon :
300			_axiv, 487 p. ; _bill., _c23 cm.
365			_b22.00 _c£ _d117.05
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and index.
520			_aWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don't know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order. Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know. David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don't know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order. Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know. David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
650			_aSociology
650			_aScience and Nature
650			_aMathematics
942			_2ddc _cBK